41 posts categorised "Brexit"
21 February 2019
Insurance - resilience against a potential downturn
A general economic slowdown has led to negative market sentiment in recent months, with equities falling and credit spreads rising. Risks of a further economic deterioration remain.One can envisage a downside scenario – not necessarily a central case - in which equities fall further, credit spreads widen, interest rates fall in response to a flight to quality, FX rates fluctuate, and property prices continue to stagnate, or fall. Inflation might also rise in the short term, in response to currency movements, and short term interest rates may exhibit particular volatility in response. Complicating matters further, it is possible that a downside scenario may reveal itself only gradually, with asset prices appearing stable for periods of time, despite being vulnerable to sell-offs.