Italy driving loan portfolio transaction volumes – Q2 2016 market update
August 16, 2016
- Q2 2016 transaction volumes have already reached 68% of completed 2015 volumes;
- Italian deal volumes continue to increase; and
- Volumes set to increase across Holland, Spain and Central and Eastern Europe.
In the second quarter of 2016 the total value of loan portfolios having transacted, already in progress or close to being brought to market reached €95.5bn. This represents 68% of completed 2015 volumes. While the UK’s EU referendum result has led to a temporary pause in some deals I fully expect things to pick up in September and October as I explored in more detail in my blog a couple of weeks ago.
A significant proportion of transaction volumes continue to be driven by Italian deals. However, we expect volumes to continue to increase across Europe, particularly in the Netherlands, Spain and Central and Eastern Europe.
Italy in the driving seat
25% of the €50bn of deals currently in progress are driven by Italian loan sales. Italy continues to be one of the most buoyant non-performing loan (NPL) markets in Europe. We fully expect completed Italian transactions to be significantly more than last year’s completed volumes as momentum and investor appetite continues to drive portfolio transactions. Read more about Italian NPLs in my June blog.
Italy isn’t the only hot market in Europe. Completed volumes in the Netherlands have already reached €6.5bn, approximately 250% of 2015’s completed volumes with a further €3bn in progress.
Despite being one of the more mature European markets, Spain remains one of the most active in Southern Europe, with transaction volumes already surpassing completed 2015 volumes. €18bn of loan portfolios have transacted or are already in progress compared to €16.5bn for the whole of 2015. Most of the completed transactions are comprised of unsecured and secured retail loans.
Popular asset classes
Completed CRE volumes have already reached €13.5bn and we expect this to be the most popular asset class in Europe.
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