The economics of sport: PwC study seeks to benchmark Olympic medals tally

As the Olympic torch completes its week-long tour of Scotland, analysis by PwC's economists reveals that home advantage to Britain could play a significant part in how the Olympic medals are shared in August, potentially earning the home nation fourth place in the rankings.

However, the superpowers of the US, China and Russia are again set to battle it out for the top spot in the Olympic Games medals table in London this August.

This is the fourth time that PwC has published an analysis of how medal performance at the Olympic Games can be linked to such factors as past Olympic performance, economics and state support for sport¹. This paper updates these estimates to allow for actual results in Beijing 2008.

The PwC model suggests that the British team – including Scottish athletes such as swimmer Hannah Miley, badminton player Imogen Bankier and track cyclist Chris Hoy - could win around 54 medals.

This would top an already exceptionally good performance of 47 medals in Beijing, due to home advantage, which has proved significant in all other recent Olympics except Atlanta in 1996.

John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, said:

 “Host nations generally ‘punch above their weight’ at the Olympics, which bodes well for the British team in London. This would still leave Britain in fourth place in the total medals table but we will be only too pleased if the British team can beat our model projection in London this summer!”

The analysis also says that home country advantage should on average boost medal share by around two percentage points, which might translate to around an extra 19 medals for Britain in 2012. However this needs to be tempered by the remarkable performance for the British team in Beijing that may have seen preparations for London 2012 already starting to bear fruit in areas such as cycling, rowing and sailing.

John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, said:

 “The overall model projection suggests a solid but more modest increase in Britain’s medal tally in London. In general, the number of medals won increases with the population and economic wealth of the country, but less than proportionately. David can sometimes beat Goliath in the Olympic arena, although superpowers like the US, China and Russia continue to dominate the top of the medals table.”

In the extract below, the PwC model estimates the top 10 medal-winning countries in London compared to Beijing 2008. For the full table of 30 countries see Notes to Editors

Country	Model estimate of medal total in London 2012	Medal total in Beijing 2008	Difference
1. US	113	110	+3
2. China	87	100	-13
3. Russia	68	73	-5
4. Great Britain	54	47	+7
5. Australia	42	46	-4
6. Germany	41	41	0
7. France	37	41	-4
8. Japan	28	25	+3
9= Italy	27	28	-1
9= South Korea	27	31	-4

  Some further findings to be drawn from the PwC model include:

• Now it is no longer the host country, China may find it more difficult to stay ahead of the US (as it did in Beijing on gold medals, although not total medals won).
• Russia is projected by the model to continue to perform strongly relative to the size of its economy in third place (68 medals), but it does continue to drift down the table relative to the heights of its performance in the old USSR era.
• The model still suggests that India is a significant underperformer relative to its population and GDP, with a model target of around 5-6 medals for London after allowing for past performance. The most plausible explanation is that, with the exception of hockey, Indian sport tends to focus on events that are not included in the Olympics, notably cricket.
• The model estimates suggest that larger Western European countries such as Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands might be expected to broadly match their Beijing 2008 performances – though they will no doubt hope to do better.
• Countries where the model targets for London are below those for Beijing include Australia (still in gentle decline from the heights of Sydney in 2000) and some former Soviet bloc countries where the legacy advantages of strong state support from the pre-1991 era may be gradually fading, such as Ukraine and Belarus.
• As well as Great Britain, countries that the model suggests have the potential to do better than in Beijing include: Japan, Brazil (in the run-up to being the host country in 2016), Romania and Turkey. 

 Ends

Contact details:

Email - John Hawksworth, chief economist

            - Lynn Hunter, media relations