54 articles for "The economy"

18 July 2013

Looking for guidance from Mark Carney

By Andrew Sentance, Senior Economic Adviser, PwC Mark Carney has had a lucky start as Governor of the Bank of England. Business surveys and labour market data suggest that the UK economy continues to grow and is probably picked up momentum. He has narrowly avoided having to write his first...

11 July 2013

UK Economy – Light at the end of the tunnel?

By Jonathan Bruce and John Hawksworth After a couple of years of disappointing growth, our latest UK Economic Outlook report suggests that there is now some light at the end of the tunnel. We project that the gradual recovery seen in the first quarter of this year will continue, with...

04 July 2013

How high will gilt yields go?

By John Hawksworth, Chief Economist No-one is expecting an immediate change in short term interest rates following Mark Carney’s first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting today, but the market is already focusing on the longer term picture. As signalled by recent rises in US and UK government bond yields, investors...

26 June 2013

The Spending Review and its economic impact

By John Hawksworth, Chief Economist The overall amount to be spent by the government in 2015/16 is £745 billion, exactly as planned in the Budget. So the size of the cake is the same as previously planned and the net effect of today's announcements on overall UK economic growth in...

20 June 2013

Will the spending squeeze derail the UK jobs recovery?

By John Hawksworth, Chief Economist The fiscal situation remains very challenging, with annual public borrowing still stuck at around £120 billion. The Chancellor therefore has little room to manoeuvre as he prepares his 2013 Spending Review, which will set out details of planned spending cuts in 2015/16. Our analysis in...

17 June 2013

Winston Churchill, G8 and the Northern Ireland economy

By Esmond Birnie, Chief Economist in Northern Ireland At the end of the First World War, Winston Churchill complained that, as the deluge of a European conflict subsided, “...we see the dreary steeples of Fermanagh and Tyrone emerging once again.” While Churchill’s aside had more to do with the unresolved...

13 June 2013

Unemployment figures confirm the “new normal” of low growth

By Andrew Sentance, Senior Economic Adviser, PwC Unemployment is falling again in the UK. That is very welcome, though the recent fall is very modest – around 5,000 over the past three months. But the remarkable thing about the UK unemployment rate over the four years of economic recovery so...

17 May 2013

Rethinking government in the ‘new normal’ economy

By Andrew Sentance, Senior Economic Adviser, PwC Public spending is under pressure. Across the western world, and especially in Europe, governments are struggling to contain high levels of public spending and borrowing. According to the OECD, the UK government spent 49% of GDP in 2012, and across the euro area...

22 April 2013

Why the UK economy is not rebalancing

By Andrew Sentance, Senior Economic Adviser, PwC Official UK economic policy statements repeatedly emphasise the need to rebalance our economy. The idea is that growth before the financial crisis was too dependent on financial services and consumer spending. Over the recovery, ministers and senior Bank officials have argued, we need...

18 April 2013

Squeeze or no squeeze?

By John Hawksworth, Chief Economist The latest labour market data from the ONS showed regular pay in the three months to February 2013 up by just 1% on a year ago. Given that the latest consumer price inflation rate is 2.8%, this appears to imply a heavy squeeze on consumer...