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02 August 2018

Should we be worried about households’ finances?

By Mike Jakeman, Senior Economist Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has showed that British households spent an average of £900 more than they received in 2017. This means they had to either take out bank loans or dip into their savings. Indications are that they did both....

26 July 2018

How have UK goods exports fared since the referendum?

By Mike Jakeman, Senior Economist The nature of the trading relationship between the UK and Europe—critical for British exporters—remains highly uncertain. With only 250 days remaining before the UK leaves the EU, the clock is quietly ticking. If negotiations were to fail, UK exporters could face significant tariffs on their...

19 July 2018

Why has UK employment been so strong... and can it continue?

By Mike Jakeman The UK economy faces a difficult short-term outlook. Uncertainty around the country’s future trading relationship with the EU has caused business investment growth to slow, while a weaker pound has up inflation, diminishing real consumer spending power. In our latest UK Economic Outlook, we reduced our projection...

17 July 2018

AI and robots should create as many jobs as they displace in the long run

By John Hawksworth and Yuval Fertig Our latest UK Economic Outlook report projects relatively subdued UK growth over the next couple of years, in part due to the drag on business investment from ongoing uncertainty around Brexit. This will also keep UK house price inflation at modest levels over the...

19 June 2018

UK GDP could be boosted by £180 billion if we could extend working lives to match New Zealand

By George Mason and Saloni Goel By 2050, the number of people in the OECD aged 55 and over will grow to over half a billion. Whilst it is good news that we are living longer, an ageing population is already putting significant financial pressure on health, social care and...

17 May 2018

How far will the pound in your pocket stretch this summer?

By Saatvik Bansal and John Hawksworth Last October we published for the first time our British Overseas Purchasing Power (BOPP) Index, which indicates how the purchasing power of UK wages has changed over time in the 27 countries where UK citizens spend the most overseas. The BOPP index combines real...

12 April 2018

Is it time to plan for the next downturn?

By Andrew Sentance, Senior Economic Adviser It is nine years now since the UK economic downturn triggered by the Global Financial Crisis came to an end – in the second quarter of 2009. As long as economic growth continues into the second half of 2018, which is highly likely, we...

20 March 2018

London has outpaced other UK regions for 20 years – but will this continue?

By John Hawksworth and George Mason Our latest UK Economic Outlook report projects steady but relatively modest UK GDP growth of around 1.5% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019. But how will this vary by region? One obvious way to assess this is to look at history. As analysed in...

16 March 2018

Chancellor bides his time as the UK remains in the slow lane of global growth

By John Hawksworth UK economic growth has slowed over the past couple of years, but the latest news has been somewhat more positive on the back of a stronger global economy. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) nudged up its 2018 GDP growth forecast from 1.4% to 1.5% to reflect...

13 March 2018

Jam tomorrow, not today, in the Chancellor’s Spring Statement

By Andrew Sentance, Senior Economic Adviser The first “Spring Statement” since the Budget was moved to the Autumn last year was a pretty dull affair. The Office for Budget Responsibility did not give the Chancellor much to work with. Economic growth was revised up very slightly this year, but the...